It appears that their recommendation is first and foremost to replace ambiguity with clarity – while also taking steps to improve the prospects for American/Taiwanese success. It is hard to see what vital interests would be protected by such a war. Strategic clarity would not entail that the United States recognize Taipei or upgrade its relationship with Taiwan, nor would it involve a mutual defense treaty or any signed document with Taiwan. First, the capacity fixes they recommend, set forth in a single short paragraph, don’t read like game-changers: the stationing of more and better dispersed assets in the region; setting Taiwan’s defense as a top Pentagon priority; and consulting with Tokyo and Seoul “to see what types of assistance these allies would offer during a Taiwan contingency.” Second, their “strategic clarity” prescription isn’t expressly conditioned on confidence that China’s asymmetric advantages in the theater have first been overcome. When a government believes that it has full U.S. backing, it can start to behave more recklessly than it otherwise would. But what if? They point out the growing power imbalance between Taiwan and the mainland, as if this were a good reason to make an explicit security guarantee to the weaker side. An open commitment to defend Taiwan won’t mean much unless the U.S. has the certain capacity to do so. to find out more, read our. As if leaving combat units unsupported will do any good.”. Click here to subscribe for full access. In their view, “Ambiguity is unlikely to deter an increasingly assertive China with growing military capabilities.” Successful deterrence depends on both will and capacity. With Taiwan a mere hundred miles off the coast of the mainland, and progress in China’s military technologies having rendered that neighborhood very challenge terrain for American forces, Beijing’s asymmetrical advantages have dramatically depleted that confidence over time.
But in recent weeks more voices have been arguing that the policy is outdated and should be replaced by “strategic clarity” given China’s increasingly aggressive stance, seen in … It is simply not the time for what might amount, in the present circumstances, to just short of a bet-the-country roll of the dice. Meanwhile, in 2020, Sino-American relations are at their worst shape in almost half a century. But contemplating this scenario helps assess the likelihood of successful deterrence. The U.S. cannot make such an important commitment to go to war to defend another country when there is so little public support for doing so. We and our partners will store and/or access information on your device through the use of cookies and similar technologies, to display personalised ads and content, for ad and content measurement, audience insights and product development. Insofar as an explicit U.S. security guarantee might encourage Taiwan to declare independence, it could end up triggering the very crisis that the guarantee is supposed to forestall. Opposition parties have tapped a right-wing Islamist as the leader of the Pakistan Democratic Movement. The collapse of confidence in long-term advantage means the era of strategic ambiguity is over. Haass and Sacks don’t address a scenario in which strategic clarity is adopted, deterrence nonetheless fails, and the fighting in Taiwan and the Straits is faring poorly for the defenders. Ambiguity is unlikely to deter an increasingly assertive China with growing military capabilities. But prudence would almost certainly militate against such an escalation, and this conclusion suggests the limitations of a policy of strategic clarity. Just $5 a month. Yahoo is part of Verizon Media. We cherish local community, the liberties bequeathed us by the Founders, the civilizational foundations of faith and family, and—we are not ashamed to use the word—peace. In the surest sign of a bad argument, Haass and Sacks say that the U.S. must do this to “restore deterrence” following the Trump years. In calling for strategic clarity, Haass and Sacks seek above all to better deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. It’s understandable, then – and admirable – that leading members of the U.S. foreign policy community are searching for policy enhancements that can help preserve the China-Taiwan status quo far into the future.
Can Japan's new PM get the economy back on track in a nation facing a global pandemic, mounting debt and adverse demographics? The premise of that view is that the Achilles’ heel of deterrence in the Taiwan Straits is the uncertainty of U.S. intervention under the present doctrine of strategic ambiguity. U.S. strategic clarity could help alleviate his trepidation, which some in Taiwan have called defeatism that weakens Taiwan morale and tempts China - the opposite of Tsai's … He holds a PhD in history from the University of Chicago, and resides in Lancaster, PA. They admit that it “kept this powder keg from exploding,” so why do away with it now? Taiwan has been a friend of the U.S. for seven decades. Enjoying this article? New Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide is widely seen as a continuity choice. In a recent Foreign Affairs piece, Richard Haass and David Sacks proposed that the United States abandon its longtime posture of “strategic ambiguity” over Taiwan, in favor of “strategic clarity” in regard to defending the island from a potential Chinese attack. During the late 1990s and early 2000s, Taiwan committed itself to cutting the force size from half a million strong to fewer than 200,000. But it’s hard to imagine that such escalation scenarios could look promising to the United States. But there are two weaknesses in their treatment of this critical variable. Strategic clarity, on the other hand, is more effective in deterring the enemy, because the message is clear and definite, even though this policy puts the US at the risk of fulfilling its commitments to protect Taiwan. As Prime Minister Muhyiddin enters self-quarantine, his nation grapples with a sudden rise in coronavirus infections. How can Filipinos, especially low-income families, stay at home when they are being forced into homelessness? It is also necessary to look at the state of Taiwan’s defenses and decide whether it makes sense to commit to defend a country whose own military is in such parlous shape: Chang Han-ching, a retired navy captain and a researcher for the Taiwan Center for International Strategic Studies, believes it was the Taiwanese military’s hasty yet critically flawed downsizing that hollowed out its logistics. “CPEC has been a chastening experience for China in the context of the BRI.”. Why have Chinese citizens shown even stronger support for Xi Jinping during the COVID-19 crisis? 59% oppose doing this. Timothy S. Rich, Madelynn Einhorn, Andi Dahmer, and Isabel Eliassen, About
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